Changing Tides

The Dyfi coastline is in perpetual flux. It has changed and adapted over millennia, and people and communities have adapted along with it.

To thrive in the years to come, we believe that we must continue to adapt – and we have a better chance of succeeding if we work together to achieve that.

Enabling ourselves and our community

With the support of Tir Canol, our core co-production group was formed. We’re made up of residents from across the Dyfi Estuary with diverse perspectives and lived experiences, ranging from farmers and researchers to marketers and artists. We think it’s important to place people at the centre of our thinking and action planning.

We’re on a journey to educate ourselves and others within our community on the possible futures of our beloved coastline in the face of rising sea levels and climate change. This handbook – the first of its kind created using a coproduction approach – outlines the context and scope of our work, exploring the history and geography of the Dyfi coast, its habitats and species, and why it’s so unique. It also includes information on the policies, plans and modelling of the coast, and gives voice to some of the people who live and work here.

The Dyfi Estuary and catchment (the area of land where all the rain and streams eventually flow into the same river), lies on the north Cardigan Bay coast of Mid Wales.

The modern coastline we know and love today – the tidal flats, spits and dunes at Ynyslas, the ribbon of floodplain between Machynlleth and the coast, the low-lying saltmarshes, and Cors Fochno – is the result of dramatic changes that have taken place over the last 11,700 years.

These same long-term processes (sea level changes, peat growth, river and coastal erosion and sedimentation) also created the area’s present-day vulnerability to flooding. They determine which options for reducing the risk of flooding are right for our community, now and in the years to come.

The map shows the Dyfi estuary on the west coast of Wales, opening into the Irish Sea to the west.

The following locations are labelled:

Tywyn (north), Aberdyfi at the estuary mouth, Dyfi National Nature Reserve, Ynyslas, Morfa Borth, Taliesin, Tre’r-ddol, Llandfelyn, Tal-y-bont, Eglwys Fach and RSPB Ynys-hir.

Habitats are colour-coded as follows:

• Twyni tywod (sand dunes) – shown in yellow at Ynyslas, south of the estuary mouth
• Cors (peat bog) – shown in dark brown inland near Morfa Borth
• Morfa heli (saltmarsh) – shown in light green along the southern edge of the estuary
• Banciau tywod rhynglanwol (intertidal sandbanks) – shown in blue within the estuary basin

The estuary contains branching tidal channels surrounded by intertidal sandbanks.

In the Dyfi catchment, thick layers of sand and gravel from glaciers and melting ice were deposited on valley floors. They formed a series of raised flat benches (or river terraces) that now sit up to 25 metres above the modern floodplain.

These deposits became the foundation for the Holocene rivers to carve out their channels and floodplains.

Ancient river paths preserved on the surface of these terraces show that the Dyfi and neighbouring rivers adjusted their courses repeatedly as meltwater discharge, sediment supply and base level fluctuated.

The image is a stylised map illustrating changes in land above sea level over time.

The legend indicates the following:

• Dark green represents land above sea level at 16,000 BC
• Mid green represents land above sea level at 8,000 BC
• Pale green represents land above sea level at 7,000 BC
• Orange represents land area today
• Dark blue lines represent rivers

The map shows that at 16,000 BC the land area was significantly larger, extending further west. By 8,000 BC and 7,000 BC the land mass had reduced in size as sea levels rose. The present-day coastline, shown in orange, represents the smallest extent of land compared with earlier periods.

Multiple rivers are shown flowing across the land, some extending beyond the present-day coastline, indicating river systems that existed before sea levels rose.

The visual demonstrates the gradual reduction of land area over time due to rising sea levels.

Cors Fochno: An archaeological archive

Cors Fochno is a 650-hectare rain-fed peat bog. It is one of the best-preserved raised bogs in Britain and contains a high-resolution record of the Holocene epoch.

The bog is composed of peat moss, with its central dome reaching a thickness of 5 metres. It started to form on top of an earlier mid Holocene forest bed and developed into a rainfed bog about 4,700 to 7,000 years ago.

The layered structure of the bog records past changes in hydrology and woodland clearance, as well as when storms took place.

This record has recently been used to track how intense and frequent storms have been in Cardigan Bay over the last 4,500 years.

The bog not only records environmental change, but its peat and drainage system help control local flooding by storing water and reducing the impacts of storm surges.

Cors Fochno also has a rich archaeological record. Key discoveries include a Bronze Age wooden object, evidence of Iron Age/Roman industrial and metal smelting activities, and a medieval trackway

Welsh Coast Railway

The Welsh Coast Railway, built in the early 1860s, has raised tracks that created a barrier which cut off much of the Dyfi’s floodplain from its main channel – especially within the tidally influenced reach of the river and estuary.

What happened as a result?

These schemes significantly changed the morphology and dynamics of the Dyfi Estuary and lower reaches of the river by:

• reducing water and sediment storage
• preventing sedimentation behind embankments
• delivering more sediment from the Afon Leri, now diverted into the Dyfi Estuary
• funnelling the flood tide further up the estuary.

One of the most obvious results of this intervention is one you can still see today – the land behind the old embankments built between Pennal and Gogarth is 1 metre lower than the land outside them, because it hasn’t had any new layers of sediment deposited on its surface for about 200 years.

The rate the Dyfi Estuary is building up sediment is lower than at any time in the last 1,000 years (see figures 1 and 2). These reflect the increase in woodland, a sharp decrease in farming and, most importantly, the closure of waste-producing metal mines in the catchment, all of which have reduced sediment supply to the estuary.

These changes have greatly improved the area’s biodiversity and ecosystem health. But the reduction in sediment supply could, in the long term, see the lower Dyfi start to erode its own bed. While this may locally reduce flooding, it may also mean that less sediment is delivered to the coast to replenish the beaches, which protects the land from the sea.

Protecting people, property and nature

From the medieval period through to the present day, a variety of measures have been taken to reduce flooding, and to protect people, property and nature in the Dyfi catchment – particularly in Dyfi Estuary and in the tidally influenced reach of the river upstream to Machynlleth.

Embankments and land drainage were constructed on both sides of the river between Pennal and Gogarth to protect land from flooding, and also around the margins of Cors Fochno.

One of the biggest measures has been the new Dyfi Bridge, near Machynlleth. Opened in February 2024, at a cost of £46m, it was built to improve the A487 trunk road and provide a more resilient route, especially during floods.

All of these structures can protect infrastructure locally. But they can also change where water flows during high river flows and storm surges – sometimes concentrating risk downstream or in places with fewer natural buffers.

Recent modelling for the Dyfi emphasises the interaction between engineered measures and natural systems, and the need to plan with space for water.

We’re also now doing more work to preserve key species along the estuary, with recognition of the important nature reserves including Pen Llŷn a’r Sarnau Special Area of Conservation (PLAS SAC), Dyfi Biosphere and the Dyfi National Nature Reserve.

In the future, we will have to decide how we manage land for nature, knowing that with climate change there will be winners and losers among the species living within the estuary.

Over the next 50 years, climate change will be driven mainly by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions trap heat and water vapour in the atmosphere, leading to warmer temperatures, rising seas and more extreme weather.

Predicted coastal, estuary and river changes

Sea level rises and higher storm levels

UK projections show significant increases in mean sea level (gradual increase in the average height of the sea surface) and extreme sea levels (events where the highest water levels occur) when storm surges and tides coincide.

According to the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), sea levels are expected to rise significantly by 2075.

These increases will make it much more likely that low coastal barriers and dunes are breached. The estimated mean sea level rise expected for Ceredigion is 0.8 to 1.07 metres according to Welsh Government predictions.

More intense winter rainfall and higher river flows

Observations and model projections show increases in extreme winter rainfall events, which drive higher river peaks (when the river is at its highest) and faster runoff from the uplands. Which means that river floods are getting more frequent and more severe across the catchment.

River flooding combined with high tides/storm surges create compound flooding events that are more damaging than a standalone event. These will result not only in breaches of Borth beach and Ynyslas Dunes, but also large-scale channel bed and bank erosion, and possible relocation (termed ‘an avulsion’) of the Dyfi River to another part of its floodplain.

In the case of the Western Wales River Basin District that includes the Afon Dyfi catchment, model predictions indicate betweena 30% and 70% increase in river flows by the 2080s (compared to the 1960 to 1991 baseline), according to Welsh Government data.

Warmer seas and altered wave patterns

New research shows that marine heat waves are already becoming an issue. During the heat wave of June 2023, temperatures in the UK’s shallow seas reached 2.9 degrees above the June average for 16 days, according to a study carried out by the University of Exeter, the Met Office and Cefas (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science).

These warmer waters near the shore, combined with changing storm tracks (the path that storms follow across a particular region), are altering wave energy and water movement in estuaries.

Ecological changes and prolonged periods of unusually warm ocean temperatures will also affect the diverse groups of organisms living on, in or near the bottom of the sea that influence erosion and sediment deposition.

Changes in the catchment’s water and land condition

Heavily compacted soil, drained peat bogs and fewer trees because of past farming practices cause water levels to rise more quickly.

Targeted land management can slow and sometimes reduce the flow of water and sediment delivery. Recent natural flood management projects in the Dyfi – such as those in the Afon Pennal and Leri (see chapter 9) – show how important and potentially effective these schemes are.

Unfortunately, in Wales, there is no data available for the long-term effectiveness of these schemes for catchments larger than 10 km2 – and especially during extreme flooding or flooding that lasts weeks to months, according to Welsh Government data.

These schemes do, however, appear to be improving local habitats and biodiversity, but do not prevent flooding during extreme storm events

Spit, dune and beach systems will be under stress

Increased overtopping, pounding waves and higher mean water levels will accelerate dune erosion and cause the Ynyslas-Borth spit to migrate or breach more often

Damage to saltmarsh

Saltmarshes naturally act to reduce wave energy and trap fine sediment. Rising water levels combined with fixed sea defences or hard infrastructure that prevent inland migration will reduce a marsh’s size, undermining a key natural defence (a phenomenon termed ‘coastal squeeze’, where the water is pushed into specific areas and not allowed to spread out).

If a marsh has space and enough sediment, it can grow. But engineered structures may prevent this from happening.

Damage to floodplains and peatland

More intense winter storms and increased water runoff will cause the low-lying floodplain between Machynlleth and the Dyfi Estuary to flood more often.

Wetter winters may re-wet some peat areas, but warmer, drier summers and further drainage could damage them, weakening the peat’s ability to store water while releasing carbon into the atmosphere.

Movement of historical mining waste

During the June 2012 Ceredigion floods, mining waste stored in waste tips and floodplains in the Afon Leri, and Afon Ceulan catchments were eroded and transported downstream. As a result, this contaminated, finegrain sediment was deposited on floodplains and in estuarine environments in lower Dyfi valley.

Increased flooding will remobilise contaminated sediment, damage ecosystems and making it difficult to carry out flood control methods, such as digging ponds in floodplains to store floodwater.

More households, infrastructure and services at risk

Even with local embankmentsand defences, increased overtopping and backwater flooding will raise the frequency of property-level flooding, leading to higher insurance costs and disruption to roads (like the A487), the railway, utilities and farm livelihoods.

Contaminated floodwater and sewage overflows pose a risk to public health. Knowing the difference between what is right for coastal communities (such as Borth) and what is right for more inland villages such as Talybont will help to properly control flood risks and reduce the severity of flooding.

But the next 50 years offers an opportunity

Climate change will not be a single shock to the Dyfi but a process of intersecting pressures – accelerating sea level rise, differing river and coastal responses, contamination from historical mining and changing ecosystems.

What is essential now is to link science and policy tools to longterm, community-led decision making. We also need to adopt adaptive, incremental responses that favour nature-based defences backed by targeted engineered protection. You can read more about this in chapter 6.

The next 50 years offer an opportunity: by looking after our peatlands, making strategic space for the estuary waters, and supporting communities and landowners to adapt, the Dyfi can become a model of resilience thatprotects people, nature and heritage.

Anyone who lives or visits the Dyfi area will know how rich in wildlife it is. The area supports an amazing diversity of habitats, from offshore reef systems and estuarine salt marshes, through Atlantic rainforest woodlands in deep-cut river valleys, to more exposed upland bog habitats and heathland on the mountains surrounding the region.

This impressive array of habitats in turn supports countless species that can be found across the area – many of which are rare and highly restricted.

In this chapter, we explore what some of those species and habitats are. We also look at some of the ways we might expect the dynamic coastal and estuarine environment of the Dyfi to respond to future changes in climate, sea level and extreme weather events.

It outlines some of the challenges to nature conservation and land managers seeking to safeguard the important species and habitats found in the Dyfi. It also highlights some of the ways we can adapt our activities to increase the resilience of this amazing area of Mid Wales to the changes on the horizon

Unique habitats and species found here in the Dyfi:

A key component of the Dyfi region is its river systems, estuary habitats and marine environment.

The dynamic connection between land and sea has dictated the region’s human and ecological communities for millennia and is of foremost importance as we look to the coming years.

It is at this intersection that we find some of the area’s most important and unique habitats and species: one of Wales’s largest lowland-raised peat bogs is located between Borth and Taliesin (Cors Fochno) which is home to rare species like the large heath butterfly, rosy marsh moth and bog bush-cricket. The large heath butterfly is a rare butterfly with only a handful of strongholds left in Wales. In the Dyfi, a population found on Cors Fochno represents the very southern edge of this butterfly’s UK distribution.

Extensive salt marsh and mud flat habitats straddle the river sides between Ynys Las and Pennal, and are of immense importance for overwintering wading and wildfowl bird species like curlews, oystercatchers and wigeon.

The sand dune habitats of Ynyslas host an immense diversity of rare plant species such as early marsh orchids and bee orchids, as well as sand lizards reintroduced in 2009. This habitat is also home to the irish lady’s-tresses: a beautiful and dainty little orchid, this scarce plant was only discovered in the Dyfi in 2019 and is the only known site in Wales. It exists in the Ynyslas dune systems and flowers from July to August.

Rocky outcrops jutting out from the farmland, wetlands and salt marsh habitats of the estuary support old, mature oak woodlands where migratory birds such as pied flycatchers, wood warblers and redstarts breed come spring.

Beyond the shoreline we can find bottlenose dolphins, grey seals and important seasonal feeding grounds for seabirds like manx shearwaters, as well as unique reef systems associated with the immense glacial boulder formations of Sarn y Bwch (near Tywyn) and Sarn Gynfelyn (near Aberystwyth).

Here are a few more of the scarcer birds and animals that can be found here in the Dyfi:

An area of ecological and cultural importance

The Dyfi’s importance for wildlife and diverse habitats – both on land and at sea – is reflected in the many UK and European designations the area holds.

For example, the entire Dyfi catchment is designated as a UNESCO Biosphere reserve (the only one of its kind in Wales) in recognition of its immense ecological and cultural importance.

The Dyfi Estuary, Ynyslas Dune system and lowland raised bog habitat of Cors Fochno make up a substantial National Nature Reserve, with specific Special Areas of Conservation and RAMSAR wetlands sites found here.

The challenge of climate change

As described in chapter two, the Dyfi area has changed over time, and it will continue to change in the years to come. The ‘petrified’ forest on the beach of Borth and Ynyslas is testament to the fact that ecosystems in the Dyfi have been very different indeed in the past: where the coastline now exists, it once supported an immense forest whose stumps are now glimpsed at low tide, preserved in peat below the waters.

Change is a constant in the natural world, yet the rapidity of the current human-induced climate change is exceptional. Species and habitats are much less able to adapt to the rate of current change – but there are ways we can help wildlife to weather the changes and work hand-in-hand with the natural world to help ourselves cope with the changes too

In the Dyfi region, the impacts of climate change to the landscape and its ecology include the increasing severity and frequency of storm events, flooding and drought, wildfires, sea level rise and changes in the species that are able to exist here. The estuary and its surrounding grasslands, bogs, marshes and woodlands are particularly vulnerable to the combination of sea level rise and increasing storm events. This is especially so because of a number of alterations that humans have engineered in the landscape.

Before human influence, the estuary would have been a highly dynamic and everchanging environment: brackish habitats like salt marsh (a mix of salty and fresh water) gave way to peat bogs and woodlands, and the interaction between these habitats would have waxed and waned over time according to the sea level. Humans interrupted this natural cycle by erecting flood defences, digging drainage channels and constructing the current railway line. The result of these structures has created an artificial divide between the saline estuary, freshwater bog and agricultural land.

Over time, wildlife has adapted to these changes. For example, the low-lying land at Ynys-hir, known as lowland wet grassland, was once bog but is now agricultural grassland. It supports Wales’s most important breeding wader population, with large number of lapwings, redshank and snipe, and rare Greenland White-fronted geese rely on this lowland wet grassland for much of the winter. Climate-induced sea level rises and increasing storm events now threaten the habitats that have been created in these areas. Flood events can result in brackish water spilling out onto agricultural fields and lowland wet grasslands. This can kill soil invertebrates, which are a vital food source for the wading birds that now rely on these habitats. The standing water also damages and degrades agricultural land. Recovery times are slow and it may be months, or even years, before the populations of invertebrates recover.

The challenge that land managers, including conservationists, around the Dyfi Estuary face is how to adapt to these changes to safeguard nature, while accepting that some habitats and species might be lost.

We must also look at the Dyfi area as a whole and balance the needs of nature against other priorities around us, such as preventing property and infrastructure flooding, and the effect on livelihoods as traditional land uses become more challenging.

There may be situations where nature can give us a helping hand too.

Salt marsh acts as a protective barrier around much of the Dyfi Estuary. However, it is threatened because rising sea levels will submerge the marsh’s lower fringe (or edge) permanently, leading to significant loss. Currently, there are few areas where salt marsh can form further up the fringes of the high tide line due to fixed features – such as the railway embankment – preventing much of the tidal water flowing further inland. There may be some areas where an intentional breach of this structure could occur – provided the railway is safeguarded and key areas of productive farmland are avoided. A breach in some key areas could allow for new areas of salt marsh to establish, restoring the natural protective border of vegetation.

Helping to slow a river’s flow

Further from the shore, there are range of ‘soft’ nature-based approaches that can help in our effort to buffer the effects of climate-induced changes. To address major flooding events, we can look upstream to the wider catchment and seek to slow the flow of flood waters reaching the estuary via its tributaries and rivers. Slowing the flow of rivers during periods of intense rain and storm events can involve a whole range of holistic actions: regenerative land management practices help to increase soil health, and healthy soils are much more able to absorb water – resulting in less runoff reaching rivers in the first place. We can look at areas where buffers strips of trees can be planted close to water courses, which further reduce runoff into rivers. ‘Leaky dams’ can be constructed with piles of tree branches and trunks, forming leaky barriers that slow the flow of water.

There are already a number of inspiring projects locally using such methods to address flooding events: in the Tal y Bont region, a community group have been working with local landowners and farmers to construct leaky dams, as well as planting hundreds of hedges and thousands of trees in the surrounding catchments to help
reduce the possibility of future flooding. In the Pennal region of the Dyfi Estuary, a large group of landowners and farmers have come together to create the ‘Pennal 2050’ partnership: this seeks to use natural flood management techniques to address flooding risk in the area. The project has installed a raft of leaky dams in the catchment, has improved soil health on a large area of farmland, and has planted woodlands, hedges and strips of trees to further combat the risks of flooding.

Another nature-based solution is ‘re wiggling’ rivers. Historically, land reclamation projects involved excavating new water courses and straightening existing rivers – an example of this is the lower stretch of the Afon Leri, close to the lowland raised bog of Cors Fochno. Restoring the river’s meanders makes the river more than three times longer between two fixed points. This increase in length allows the energy of floodwaters to be absorbed at each bend, slowing the water and easing the intensity of some flooding events.

Coastal adaptation is the process of adjusting to current or projected sea level rise, erosion and other impacts of climate change to build resilience in coastal communities and environments.

Part of this process involves the creation of Shoreline Management Plans. They provide a strategic, long‑term framework for managing risks from coastal flooding and erosion.

They assess how different stretches of coastline are likely to change and set out preferred management approaches – such as holding the line, adaptive or planned retreat, or no active intervention – over 20, 50 and 100‐year horizons.

Their purpose is to balance environmental, social and economic considerations so that coastal communities, infrastructure and habitats can be protected in a sustainable and coordinated way.

Adaptation strategies for managing the coastline

The four main adaptation strategies used in shoreline management plans are:

• holding the line
• advancing the line
• adaptive or planned retreat
• no active intervention

These strategies are all based on scientific, social, economic and environmental data.

No active intervention

This is the ‘do nothing’ strategy – so there is no investment in installing or maintaining any defences. Where there are no existing defences, the shoreline will continue to evolve naturally.

There are areas that currently have sea defences that could be left to evolve more naturally by not repairing them when they break down, which may include an increased risk of flooding or coastal erosion. Alternatively, the old defences might be removed to implement a ‘do nothing’ strategy.

Natural Resources Wales is working on the next iteration of the shoreline management plans to create the Borth to Ynys-hir Coastal Adaptation Strategy, as described in Chapter 6.

How other coastal communities are building resilience

A good example of other coastal communities building resilience in Wales is the Pembrokeshire Coastal Forum (PCF), who have created a Climate Adaptation Toolkit for the county. The toolkit has been officially endorsed as a United Nations Ocean Decade Activity, recognising the project’s contribution to international efforts to build a more sustainable relationship with the world’s oceans

Recent breaches of man-made flood defences

• 1990: Properties flooded due to breach of Afon Ddu
• 1997: Major breach of Afon Leri
• 2001: Breach of flood defences
• 2007: Breach of Afon Ddu’s right bank
• 2012: Overtopping after extensive river flooding; tens of properties and caravans affected
• 2014: Coastal overtopping; several properties and gardens affected
• 2016: Coastal overtopping; properties affected
• 2017-18: Coastal overtopping and damage to defences
• 2019: Several breaches of Afon Leri embankments
• March 2020: Breach of the east Afon Leri; emergency repair needed
• August 2020: One of the repaired defences fails
• 2021: Localised flooding due to embankment damage
• 2022: Breach of the coastal timber south of the Dyfi Dunes; damage and flooding

Policies are formal documents and guidelines that are implemented by organisations. They ensure consistency and effective decision-making. When we refer to Welsh marine policy, we can look at Welsh Government responsibilities and the devolved responsibilities of Natural Resources Wales, but also at local authorities and their role in implementing and following policy.

Government policies can have a serious impact on our lives. It’s important to understand where the different responsibilities lie to know how we can effect change. It can often feel that different institutions put accountability and responsibility back on to other government bodies or institutions. By understanding which regulating body has legal responsibility we are better able to ask for support and to hold them to account.

This chapter lays out important policies relating to Wales and the coast, climate change and flood management.

Please note that policies are always changing. We will do our best to update this chapter, but it’s most accurate as of January 2026

Who’s responsible for flood prevention and the coastline in Wales?

Responsibility is jointly held amongst several bodies:

Policies, plans and strategies at work in Wales

All of these rules and regulations serve to help protect the sea, coastline and communities throughout Wales

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015

The Well-being of Future Generations Act (Wales) 2015 mandates five ways of working for public bodies to consider long-term impacts, collaborate and encourage participation in decision making to address issues like poverty and climate change. One example of how these ways of working are being embedded into delivery is Y Môr a Ni (The Sea and Us), the ocean literacy (an initiative aimed at enhancing the relationship between people and the ocean) framework for Wales.

Y Môr a Ni is the UK’s first national ocean literacy strategy. It aims to build an understanding of how people, communities and businesses across Wales connect with Welsh coasts and seas. It also seeks to determine the impact of our individual and collective actions on the ocean’s health – and its impacts on us – so we can improve how we manage and use our coasts and seas.

Environment (Wales) Act 2016

The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 establishes the legal framework for the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (SMNR) in Wales. SMNR is the core purpose of Natural Resources Wales and a key component of a joined-up approach to improving the wellbeing of the nation for current and future generations.

The objective is to maintain and enhance the resilience of ecosystems and the benefits they provide. It’s also about meeting people’s needs today without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 and part 1 of the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 work together to support seven wellbeing goals:

• A globally responsible Wales
• A prosperous Wales
• A resilient Wales
• A healthier Wales
• A more equal Wales
• A Wales of cohesive communities
• A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language

Flood and Water Management Act 2010

According to GOV.UK, The Flood and Water Management Act 2010 ‘provides for better, more comprehensive management of flood risk for people, homes and businesses, helps safeguard community groups from unaffordable rises in surface water drainage charges, and protects water supplies to the consumer’.

The Act also defines flood risk management authorities as ‘organisations that have a statutory responsibility for managing flood and coastal erosion risk’.

In Ceredigion, these are:

• Ceredigion County Council (as the Lead Local Flood Authority)
• Natural Resources Wales
• Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water
• Ceredigion County Council (as the Highway Authority)
• North and Mid Wales Trunk Road Agent

Borth to Ynys-hir Coastal Adaptation Plan

Natural Resources Wales and Ceredigion County Council are currently working on the Borth to Ynys-hir Coastal Adaptation plan.

The objectives of the plan are to:

• Protect communities from flooding
• Work with the community
• Support a thriving local economy
• Make the best use of public money
• Plan for the future
• Support the resilience of nature and the environment

The aim is to create an adaptive management plan which will provide a roadmap for actions to maximise flood protection of communities at risk while managing adaptation to the rising sea over the next 100 years.

Key stakeholders include Network Rail; Scottish Power; Welsh Parliament; Welsh Government; Ceredigion County Council; Transport for Wales; Borth Community Council; Borth 2030; Aberystwyth University; Farmers’ Union of Wales; RSPB; Tir Canol; Natura 2000; and the EU’s LIFE programme.

The Welsh Marine Protected Area Network

The Welsh Marine Protected Area Network covers approximately 69% of the Welsh inshore area (up to 12 nautical miles) and includes:

The image is a map of Wales and the surrounding coastal waters showing designated marine and coastal conservation sites.

The legend identifies the following designations:

• 107 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), shown in red
• 1 Marine Conservation Zone, shown in yellow
• 3 Ramsar sites (wetlands of international importance), shown in orange
• 13 Special Protected Areas, shown with green outlines
• 15 Special Areas of Conservation, shown with dark blue outlines

The mapped designations are distributed around the Welsh coastline, including north Wales, Cardigan Bay and the south Wales coast. Several designations extend offshore into marine waters.

A dashed boundary line marks the wider marine planning or jurisdictional boundary around Wales. The note on the map states that coastal habitat above the mean high tide water mark is excluded. The image demonstrates the concentration and distribution of protected marine and coastal areas around Wales.

Climate Adaptation Strategy for Wales

The Climate Adaptation Strategy for Wales aims to keep land-based, freshwater, marine and coastal species and habitats in good ecological health and resilient to the impacts of climate change. The strategy also covers infrastructure, flooding and adaptation approaches.

This includes:

• Keeping protected areas in favourable conditions
• Increasing habitat diversity, extent, connectivity and species-richness across all areas. This leads to more resilient ecosystems and fewer greenhouse gas emissions from natural carbon stores (places in nature that can absorb and hold carbon for a period of time)
• Using more nature-based solutions, which are outlined in more detail in chapter 4.

National Strategy for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management in Wales

This sets out a comprehensive approach and long-term measures for reducing the risk of flooding across Wales.

The strategy:

• Provides strategic direction through clear objectives and measures that help to reduce risk by building an area’s resilience and encouraging collaborative working
• Focuses on delivering more sustainable schemes via nature-based solutions and coordinated land and water planning
• Recognises the importance of clear advice on coastal adaptation for Risk Management Authorities (see above) and communities, and the need to work closely with coastal groups on shoreline management plans.

Shoreline management plans

Shoreline management plans help communities prepare for the changes ahead. It’s about building resilience, so when flooding does occur, we can learn to respond and recover quickly to reduce the chances of negative long-term effects.

Who’s involved?

Risk Management Authorities whose members include Welsh Government, Natural Resources Wales, local authorities (acting as Lead Local Flood Authorities) and water companies with a responsibility or interest in managing the coast then help to deliver the aims of the National Strategy for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management in Wales for Government.

The Welsh Coastal Groups’ Forum – made up of groups with interest in the coast – then create the shoreline management plans (there are four that cover Wales), and oversee their production and quality. Shoreline management plans are owned by coastal groups, and signed off and approved by Welsh Government. In the Dyfi, we’re part of the West of Wales Coastal Group which includes local authorities (Gwynedd, Conwy, Ynys Môn, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire), Natural Resources Wales, Network Rail and other maritime operating organisations. The group manage the shoreline between St Anne’s Head in Pembrokeshire and the Great Orme in Conwy.

To learn more about adaptation and Shoreline Management Plans, see Chapter 5.

Blue carbon is carbon dioxide that’s absorbed from the atmosphere and stored in the ocean’s plants, rocks and sediment. Storing this organic carbon helps to fight the effects of climate change.

The image is a cross-section of a salt marsh ecosystem showing how carbon is captured and stored over time. The numbers correspond to the following processes:

1. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is present in the atmosphere above the salt marsh.
2. Carbon removal through photosynthesis and tidal input: Salt marsh plants remove CO₂ from the air through photosynthesis. Salt marshes also trap carbon-rich sediment and organic matter carried in by tides.
3. Carbon stored in living plants: The carbon captured by plants is stored in their leaves, stems and roots while they are alive.
4. Burial of dead plant material: When plants die, their remains are buried beneath layers of sediment. They decompose slowly in the low-oxygen conditions below the surface.
5. Long-term carbon storage in soil: Over time, carbon accumulates and is stored in salt marsh soils for thousands of years.

An estimated 0.94 million tonnes of organic carbon are stored in the top 10cm of soils in coastal saltmarshes and 0.06 million tonnes in seagrass bed sediments.

Sublittoral Marine Conservation Zones and Special Areas of Conservation contain the largest proportion of organic and inorganic carbon (6.4 metric tonnes). But inshore, littoral Marine Protected Areas (which are those areas close to the land) and notably the smaller marine portions of Sites of Special Interests, have the highest densities and rates of organic carbon accumulation per unit area in their coastal muds, saltmarshes and seagrass beds.

Marine Protected Areas with predominantly rocky habitats have less organic carbon longterm stores and lower accumulation rates. But they do support extensive kelp beds that contribute carbon to neighbouring areas of sediment through the erosion and transport of kelp detritus.

The information in this chapter is taken from The United Kingdom’s Blue Carbon Inventory: Assessment of Marine Carbon Storage and Sequestration Potential in UK Seas (Including Within Marine Protected Areas). This report summarises the original analysis undertaken by the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), The University of St Andrews and the Marine Biological Association (MBA). It has been written and edited by Professor Dan Laffoley and Professor John M Baxter, WWF, The Wildlife Trusts and the RSPB.

The diagram demonstrates how carbon moves from the atmosphere into marine and coastal ecosystems, where it is captured by plants and algae and stored long-term in sediments, seabeds and reef structures. This long-term storage of carbon in coastal and marine habitats is known as blue carbon.

How much is down there?

The carbon within just the top 10cm of seabed sediments has been estimated.

We have estimated the tip of the iceberg

Seabed sediments in UK waters are thousands of metres thick in some places. It is the top layers that are the most at risk from the impacts of human activities

The image is a three-dimensional cutaway block illustrating the structure of the seabed beneath coastal waters.

The top surface shows the ocean with a small boat on the water and a section of coastline at the left edge.

Below the water surface, the block reveals two main geological layers marked with numbers:

1. Bedrock: The lower grey rocky layer represents bedrock. This is the solid underlying geological foundation beneath marine sediments.
2. Sediments: The thick brown layer above the bedrock represents seabed sediments. These sediments extend vertically from the seabed surface downwards and can reach thousands of metres in thickness in some locations.

Sediments extend thousands of meters thick in places

Threats to blue carbon

Protecting blue carbon is crucial. While significant progress has been made in recognising the role of land-based ecosystems (like forests and peatlands) in fighting climate change by storing carbon, blue carbon remains undervalued. And it’s largely unprotected within Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), despite its importance.

Marine planning isn’t working effectively to protect our crucial blue carbon stores and hasn’t accounted for the significant role seas play in carbon storage.

Failing to recognise, protect and manage blue carbon habitats leaves them vulnerable to activities that can disturb, damage or entirely destroy them. The single greatest and most widespread threat to these carbon stores is the physical disturbance of the seabed caused by human activities at sea, such as bottom-towed fishing and offshore developments.

Assessment of these risks is not currently covered by marine planning laws. Key research generated by The Wildlife Trusts, World Wildlife Fund and RSPB advocate a reduction in these damaging activities to help protect our marine carbon stores.

The illustration shows sediment plumes rising where the seabed is disturbed, highlighting the potential release of stored carbon from marine sediments.

What is blue carbon finance?

Blue carbon finance is simply the way we pay for these projects. It’s a special kind of funding that supports the protection and recovery of our carbon-storing coastal habitats.

This type of funding is unique because it must:

• Measure carbon carefully: It calls for special ways to track and count the amount of carbon stored in coastal areas.
• Handle tricky issues: It addresses unique challenges, like figuring out who owns the land/sea and planning for the effects of sea level rise.
• Combine funds: It mixes money from carbon credit markets (where companies pay to offset their emissions) with traditional conservation funding.
• Plan for change: It must account for how these habitats might shift or move as coastlines change over time.

Much of the carbon financing research and development relies on unlocking private finance as businesses become more motivated to voluntarily offset CO2 emissions via the voluntary carbon market.

What is Wales doing?

In Welsh seas, there is huge untapped opportunity for businesses, industry and a wide range of stakeholders to demonstrate commitment to environmental resilience and enhancement. A collaboration of organisations is seeking to afford Wales this opportunity via the creation of the MARINE Fund Cymru.

The Fund is being developed through the Wales Coasts and Seas Partnership’s (CaSP Cymru) Blue Investment Working Group, with the support of Wales Council of Voluntary Action (WCVA), an experienced grant manager.

The Saltmarsh Code

There are several areas of blue carbon finance currently being developed, with the Saltmarsh Code leading the way. The code is likely to work along similar lines as the existing Woodland Carbon Code and Peatland Code.

The aim is to create and use frameworks for landowners, organisations and businesses to restore and create saltmarsh in order to address climate change.

Guidelines for funding projects

Blue carbon offers great promise and opportunities, but we still need clear rules, better science and fair community agreements before investors can fully jump in.

This has led to the development of guidelines for responsible funding of projects by The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) that use nature, like blue carbon, to tackle climate change. These guidelines emphasise protecting and managing large, interconnected areas – both on land and in the ocean.

Much of the information for this chapter has been drawn together from the brilliant research and advocacy work being delivered by World Wildlife Fund, Wildlife Trusts and RSPB.

Kirsti and Catrin from our co-design group travelled around the Dyfi estuary to listen to the people directly affected by the changes and challenges facing our area. Their diverse ideas, hopes and fears have been captured in a series of interviews, a snapshot of which has been published here.

We hope that by gathering this lived experience we can make more practical and informed choices together.

We’ve also been collaborating with a group of young people to create a short film about the Dyfi Estuary. It’s a chance for them to show what they love about the estuary, alongside their vision for its future. (CY)

Adapting to the future will mean combining short-term, practical household and community preparedness with longer-term planning. It will need to embrace natural processes as often as possible, strengthen natural buffers and sensibly use engineered defences – but only if they can be justified.

Protecting natural archives of environmental change and supporting habitats such as saltmarshes and bogs are not luxuries. They are part of a resilient strategy that aligns with how the Dyfi coastline has always evolved.

Here, we outline our recommendations to help communities in the Dyfi Estuary and catchment plan, prepare and adapt for what lies ahead.

You can also sign up for free flood warnings from Natural Resources Wales.

We hope that the insights we gathered over the last 18 months, drawing on the expertise and lived experience of local people, will inspire residents around the Dyfi Estuary to take action in the face of the changes and challenges ahead.

Beyond the project: How we’ve changed

We asked a few members of our co-production group if there was anything they’re thinking or doing differently as a result of their involvement with Changing Tides. Here’s what they said: